Northampton Saints v Bath: Ugo Monye assesses the key battles ahead of Gallagher Premiership Rugby final

By fine margins most finals are won and lost. That's certainly expected to be the case when Northampton Saints and Bath battle it out for Gallagher Premiership Rugby glory at Twickenham on Saturday, live on TNT Sports and discovery+.

After one of the tightest seasons in the championship's history, it all comes down to one game. One team will be crowned the fifth different winner in the last five years, but who will it be?

Will it be Northampton, who topped the table and ended the reign of Saracens in the semi-finals? Or will Bath prevail and clinch their first domestic title in 28 years?

Both sides are littered with quality, match-winners everywhere you look. Bath’s pack is revered while Saints perhaps have the more potent backline.

But it’s a final, an occasion in which the script often goes out the window. One man who has been there to witness every twist and turn of a thrilling campaign is TNT Sports pundit Ugo Monye.

Here’s where the former England and Harlequins player thinks the game will be won and lost.

“Of course, you can’t give Northampton Saints too much turnover ball,” Monye said. “They thrive on being able to use their attacking brilliance in transition and when they get going and create momentum, it’s very hard to wrestle it back.

“Both teams will have purple patches but when Saints get into the groove, you often feel like their purple patch stays for a little bit longer than others. That’s the challenge for Bath: to be defensively really tight and not gift up easy opportunities for Northampton to execute.

“Bath’s set-piece is significant. It’s a cliché going into finals but ‘no scrum, no win’ now. Whether it’s World Cups, Premiership finals, big matches are often won when the fundamentals of a team get on top.

“So we’re talking the aerial battle and Ben Spencer is the best box-kicking No. 9 in the league; the scrum battle and Bath have a powerful pack and scrum; and then there’s the battle at the breakdown.

“Both teams want to play fast so the team that’s able to slow down the opposition for long enough. Look at what Toulouse did to Leinster at the breakdown in the Champions Cup final, that just took away all their flow and stalled their momentum.

“I think those are three areas where Bath are really good and they have one of the best fly-halves in the world in Finn Russell that can create something out of nothing.”

Also key will be keeping 15 players on the pitch at all times. We've already seen the impact a sending off can have when the stakes are highest, the red card for New Zealand's Sam Cane in last year's World Cup final leaving the All Blacks with too great a mountain to climb against South Africa.

“All of it is underlined by discipline,” Monye added. “And I’m not just talking about penalties. A yellow or red card changes everything in the modern game.

“Under the highest of pressure and scrutiny, one of those mistakes could cost your team.”

As for his own prediction, Monye is struggling to look past Northampton, who are favourites for a first title in a decade.

“Despite how compelling and how competitive the season has been, once it got to the sharp end it’s been fairly predictable,” he said. “The two home semi-finalists won and looked comfortable.

“You’ve got No. 1 and No. 2 going into the final and I think Northampton are the favourites, so I’m going to back the favourites and say Saints for the win… by eight points.”

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